A defining week has dawned in American politics with huge implications for Donald Trump’s second presidency, for his fellow Republicans and for a Democratic Party seeking to build a new future from the ashes of its 2024 election humiliation.
The government shutdown is now in its 34th day and less than 48 hours from becoming the longest ever. But none of the political stakes compare to the misery of millions of Americans now struggling to get by on $0 paychecks, or who risk losing health care or vital food assistance.
“It feels as if the government doesn’t care. The holidays are coming — people are going to be hungry. We are the land of opportunity, and it doesn’t look like it,” Janis, a federal worker, who is the daughter and granddaughter of military veterans, told CNN’s Camila DeChalus at a food bank in suburban Maryland.
Trump seems oblivious to political appearances or the risk that the shutdown could further damage him among most Americans who have soured on his second term. Creating an impression of gilded indifference, he hosted a “Great Gatsby”-themed Halloween party at his luxury Florida club and boasted about the swish renovation of a bathroom at the White House.
In a combative interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” on Sunday, Trump showed no sign of looking for a way out that did not involve a total defeat for Democrats, whom he described as “crazed lunatics.” He said the opposition party would eventually “have to” capitulate and vote to open the government.
The president has complicated GOP calculations by renewing demands for reluctant Senate Republicans to shatter the chamber’s filibuster rule to reopen the government with a simple majority vote. GOP leaders fear this would embolden a future Democratic majority.
“The Republicans have to get tougher. If we end the filibuster, we can do exactly what we want. We’re not going to lose power,” Trump said on “60 Minutes.”
The nation’s embittered politics, which set the stage for the Washington shutdown disaster, will take a fresh twist with a handful of key elections Tuesday, which could help resolve the impasse. Or perhaps they’ll just deepen the morass.
Voters will deliver the first major verdict on Trump’s second term in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, where Democrats lead in the polls. The New York mayor’s race could enshrine democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as an electric new talent in a party split between wariness of his politics and enthusiasm over his youth. A victory for Mamdani over the old guard of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo would also hand a new foil to Trump, who paints the 34-year-old as the far-left face of his rival party.
In California, meanwhile, voters will decide whether to redraw the congressional map to favor Democrats in a clutch of seats, in response to Trump’s similar moves in Texas and elsewhere ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Their endorsement would be a huge boost for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is claiming a national leadership role ahead of a likely run for president in 2028.
The elections and the deepening pain over the shutdown, set off on October 1 by Senate Democrats in a bid to force Republicans to extend Obamacare subsidies, will play out against the daily backdrop of chaos and extremes of the second Trump era. The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear arguments over Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs that started a global trade war. The justices’ eventual decision could set up a showdown with the executive branch or confirm Trump’s claim of emergency powers in yet another vast expansion of presidential authority.
The same underlying question — of whether Trump is illegally acting on powers he’s not granted by the Constitution — underpins an escalating crisis over the administration’s strikes against what it claims are drug traffickers’ boats in the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Critics accuse the administration of carrying out extrajudicial killings and breaking the law by acting without congressional consent. The White House has offered no proof or justification to the American people for its actions, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has banned subordinates from discussing the strikes with Congress without prior approval.
Shutdown misery deepens as record approaches
On Capitol Hill, pressure on both parties to end the shutdown is becoming visceral.
The reality of rising health care premiums for those with Affordable Care Act policies struck home with the start of open enrollment Saturday. Premiums were already set to rise significantly because of the costs of care and drugs. But the expiration of subsidies means prices are shooting out of the reach of many policyholders. This is why Democrats sought to use the only leverage they had in Washington — the ability to block most legislation in the Senate — to force a showdown to coerce Republicans into action.
“We want to make sure that we can decisively address the Republican health care crisis, which is crushing people all across the country,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” on Sunday.
If the dispute was only about health care, Democrats might have claimed victory by now.
But by closing the government, they precipitated the furloughing of millions of federal employees as others were forced to work without pay. This has led to the potential cutoff of food stamps to more than 40 million people and is disrupting air travel as Thanksgiving looms.
Democrats accuse Trump of withholding emergency funding they say could partially finance food stamps for this month, claims that have been validated by several federal judges.
But the extreme disruption and costs of the shutdown are scrambling normal political calculations and may mean no party earns a clear-cut win. “It’s very unfortunate that Donald Trump and Republicans have decided to weaponize hunger and withhold SNAP benefits,” Jeffries told Tapper.
Yet House Speaker Mike Johnson pointed out that the broader deprivation caused by the shutdown would not have occurred had Democrats agreed to GOP demands to reopen the government ahead of talks on Obamacare subsidies.
“I don’t know how they can believe they’re winning, if it were indeed a game to them,” Johnson said on “Fox News Sunday.” The Louisiana Republican said Trump was “desperate” to reopen the government and had offered negotiations. The sticking point, however, is the Republican demand for the government to reopen so talks can happen — and the Democrat belief that such offers cannot be trusted.
Trump said on “60 Minutes” that he was ready to fix the Obamacare subsidies problem. “We should fix that. Fix it. And we can fix it with the Democrats,” he said. “All they have to do is let the country open and we’ll fix it.”
But the president, as has been the case across his two terms, did not lay out any detailed plan for making health care more affordable.
Senators still seeking off-ramp
Some Democratic and Republican senators have been speaking informally about a device to fund the government in the short term. But Trump’s demands to eradicate the filibuster suggest he’s got no plans to back down. This hints at what is different in this shutdown. The president has proved that he’s ready to impose pain on anyone to fulfill his political goals and that the normal logic of shutdown politics may not apply. While Democratic voters are demanding their party shows backbone against Trump, their leaders must work out a way to create an off-ramp that would allow them to claim victory.
Warning signs are also mounting for Trump and Republicans. New polls show that the Democrats’ top demand — extending the enhanced Obamacare subsidies — is popular. And in a Washington Post-ABC News poll Thursday, voters blamed Trump and the GOP more than Democrats for the shutdown by 45%-33%. The president’s approval rating is only 41% in the CNN Poll of Polls average.
But public disdain for Democrats is complicating the party’s effort to exploit Trump’s troubles. Some 68% of people in the Post poll thought the party was out of touch with most Americans. And a CBS News poll found 56% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the shutdown, while 55% said the same of how congressional Democrats and Republicans are responding to the situation.
One warning sign for Democrats is that they are being effectively forced by Trump’s hardline tactics to balance the pain of citizens who risk losing health care against the suffering of those who could lose nutrition benefits.
Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman wants to reopen the government so health care and food assistance crises can be addressed. “I fully, fully support these things, but this is the wrong tactic,” Fetterman said on “State of the Union.”
“And right now, by doing this, our government shut down, we’re getting neither of those things, and they guarantee neither you’re going to get your SNAP benefits, and you’re not going to get those kind of tax credits that we all need,” Fetterman continued. “Reopen this thing, and we can find a way forward.”
How will Tuesday’s election shift shutdown drama?
One intriguing question this week would be whether a Democratic sweep in New Jersey, Virginia, New York and the California redistricting initiative would reshape Republican shutdown tactics. Republicans might panic only a year ahead of the midterm elections.
But Johnson, who will lose his job as speaker if Democrats win back the House next year, insisted on Sunday that the impasse could end because the opposition party would no longer need to use it as an issue as voters make their decisions. “We do have a sense that something may change next week,” he told the Republican Jewish Coalition leadership summit during a virtual appearance Saturday.
But a rank-and-file Republican warned Sunday his party must make health care more affordable once the government is reopened. “The midterms are going to be a whole lot harder if Republicans just sit there and say, ‘We’re just going to let it (the enhanced subsidies) lapse. We’re not going to do anything,’” Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey told CNN’s Manu Raju on “Inside Politics Sunday.”
The cost of living has shaped campaigning ahead of Tuesday’s elections, along with Trump’s perceived excesses. “Virginia voters can and will send a message amid the recklessness and the heartlessness out of Washington,” Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger said Saturday.
Democrats in New Jersey branded GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli as a tool of Trump. But outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is also unpopular, and Ciattarelli called for change in a state that has sometimes chosen GOP governors.
Former President Barack Obama on Saturday campaigned in both states, confirming his status as one of the few A-list national Democrats — but also the party’s desperate need to find new voices.
He told voters in Norfolk, Virginia, that the stakes were clear. “We don’t need to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. We don’t need to wonder about whether vulnerable people are going to be hurt, or ask ourselves how much more coarse and mean our culture can become. We’ve witnessed it. Elections do matter,” he said.
