Damascus — When Syria’s reform-minded president Bashar al-Assad arrived at the parliament building to speak to the nation on Wednesday there was a palpable sense of excitement.
State television carried pictures of the adoring crowds gathered to welcome the head of state, hoisting portraits of 45-year-old Assad.
The event followed a day of pro-Assad demonstrations on the streets of Damascus and other major cities, where tens of thousands turned out with Syrian flags and more Assad portraits.
“Our blood, our souls — all for you Bashar!” they chanted, as brass bands played and military helicopters flew overhead.
Even among the regime’s sternest critics there was expectation. The speech was Assad’s first since unrest erupted in the southern city of Deraa nearly two weeks ago.
Officials had suggested the president was about to offer concessions that would “exceed expectations” and put an end to unrest and violence that has likely left well over 100 people dead.
Analysts indicated Assad may aim to remove the emergency laws that have propped up the Ba’ath party regime for nearly fifty years while hinting real progress on a party law may be introduced, allowing real opposition parties to challenge the Ba’athists for the first time.
But half an hour into the speech the mood among the critics turned to one of anger and bewilderment.
“This is unbelievable,” breathed one Damascus resident, watching the broadcast on television.
There was no dramatic repeal of emergency laws, nor a firm pledge to free up the political system. There was also no apology for the dozens mown down by security forces in Deraa, Latakia and other cities.
Instead, amid smiles and jokes, the president set out his version of events.
“Syria is a victim of a great conspiracy that started in distant countries and spread to inside,” Assad told parliament members. “Enemies are working to undermine our stability; they erred in choosing Syria to attack.”
Then he added: “If we make reforms under pressure, then it shows that we are weak.”
Those hoping that Assad would boldly reveal his reformist credentials might have been disappointed, but among seasoned activists — now mostly exiled from the country — there was little surprise.
“Of course he offered nothing,” said Radwan Ziadeh, head of the Damascus Centre for Human Rights, now based in Washington DC.
“It’s a joke to say the president is a reformer, no one believes it.”
Recent events may also have served to convince Assad there is no need to offer significant concessions. The crackdown on the protests, so far at least, appears effective. Despite a tense atmosphere on the streets of Deraa and Latakia, anti-regime protests are subsiding.
Reports of deaths too have stopped since the weekend. Authorities have apprehended journalists and activists, or sent them packing.
The mass rallies in support of the president are also a show of strength. Their numbers were swelled by school children and college students released from classes for the day, and state employees were also told to attend. But among them were plenty of Syrians showing genuine enthusiasm for their president.
There are also fears among activists that the protest movement is losing traction.
“It’s no good just going from Friday to Friday,” said Ziadeh. “It needs some direction. It should be organized on the ground, and I think the young people are working on that in different cities. But we need to build a political agenda and a consensus inside the opposition movement. At the moment it’s so general.”
Steven Heydemann, a keen Syria watcher at the US Institute of Peace, agrees. “There is very little cohesion and organization,” he said.
“That gives the government an opportunity to manage [the protests] without facing the threat seen in Egypt or Tunisia.”
But the mere fact that the government has been forced to talk about political reforms at all suggests the protests have made significant gains, Heydemann argues.
The mass resignation of the cabinet, announced on Tuesday, may be largely symbolic given the real power in Syria resides with the president and the Ba’ath party. But only a few weeks ago the move would have been unthinkable.
Whether the regime has successfully survived the storm remains unclear. Friday will again be a day of protests, activists promise. The underwhelming and rambling speech, they say, will only fuel the anger of protestors who feel the government continues to ignore their grievances.
A greater fear is that more will die. Assad said authorities gave “clear orders” to not harm protestors. But some say blaming the demonstrations on an international conspiracy acts to legitimize brutal suppression by security.
Should the death toll spike, the regime could find itself under even greater pressure. And offering game-changing concessions will become even more difficult.
“The strategy of offering concessions on one hand and repression on the other has failed in every other regime in the region,” said Heydemann, referring to the failed attempts of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali to quell dissent.
“I’m disappointed — I’d like to think the Syrians would have learned something.”
Analysts say Assad’s credibility domestically and internationally will suffer in the wake of the speech.
His domestic support depends on his staunch anti-Western and anti-Israeli stance and support for the Palestinian cause — issues he repeatedly referenced on Wednesday.
He also benefits from his image as a young sophisticated reformist, held back by a resistant and aging Ba’ath party inherited from Hafez al-Assad, the current president’s father and erstwhile head of state for nearly three decades until his death in 2000.
“We are all supporters of the president precisely because of his reform agenda,” said one pro-reformist in Damascus.
But after the disappointment of Wednesday’s speech, that image is starting to wear thin. Whether he will be forced to pay a high price for his lack of boldness on reform remains to be seen.
