The Egyptian government has been keeping quiet over the Libyan crisis, fearing that the one million Egyptians who work there would be badly affected if Cairo supports the Western airstrikes against the regime of Muammar al-Qadhafi.
The two countries share a frontier of some 1000km that stretches from the Mediterranean coast into the Sahara desert. About 1.5 million Egyptians live and work in Libya, the largest community of Egyptians in the Middle East outside of Egypt. Around 100,000 Egyptians have fled Libya since violence erupted through the western and eastern borders of the country, according to the Egyptian government.
A popular revolt in Libya has posed the toughest challenge for Qadhafi in his 42 years in office. He reacted violently by attacking rebels and committing crimes against humanity, as described by international rights watch dogs.
On Wednesday, their fifth day of operations, Western powers enforcing the UN resolution for a no-fly zone launched more air strikes on pro-Qadhafi troops. A senior British commander said on Wednesday that the Libyan air force was destroyed.
“Because of the border and the number of Egyptians working there, Libya is a vital element of Egyptian national security, but there is uncertainty over what position Cairo should take,” says Mohamed Abdel Salam, an expert in national security affairs and editor in chief of the quarterly International Affairs.
“During the revolution, Cairo had two main challenges for its national security: the southern secession in Sudan, and the crisis in Libya. Egypt is overwhelmingly busy with administrating internal affairs, and now it has to pay serious attention to the turmoil on its borders,” adds Abdel Salam.
Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been in charge of running the country after the toppling of President Hosni Mubarak and has deployed army personnel and tanks in the streets of different cities to maintain security. Last month, after Libyan border guards had withdrawn from their side of the border with Egypt, the latter’s army sent additional forces to the area.
At a session of the Arab League, Egypt gave its support to the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya, a move that aimed at preventing Qadhafi’s air force from attacking civilians. However, Secretary General of the Arab League Amr Moussa said on Sunday that the League’s decision was not designed to endorse the intense bombing and missile attacks undertaken by Western forces.
But British Prime Minister David Cameron alleged on Wednesday that Arab support for the military operation over Libya is "very strong," telling the House of Commons that Kuwait and Jordan would take part in the operation, and that Qatar already had planes in action.
“They are simply agents for the West,” says political analyst Refaat Sayyed Ahmad, referring to Moussa and the Arab countries that announced their participation in the Western military operations.
“Only the oil resources in Libya and Iran are not under the American hegemony," argues Ahmad.
“The US wanted simply to control these resources, but Egypt’s military can’t go and attack Libya because it would mean bowing to Western pressure, and also because it poses other threats.”
“The fall of Qadhafi wouldn’t come from airstrikes. The only way is to have troops on Libyan soil that are able to topple the regime. I guess Western forces are aware of the fact and hope for the participation of Egypt’s military in such an operation,” continues Ahmad.
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived in Cairo on Wednesday on an unannounced two-day visit, during which he discussed operations in Libya with Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of Egypt's SCAF.
“[Gates] is especially appreciative of [Tantawi's] leadership and the performance of his military through a very tumultuous period in Egypt over the past several weeks," said Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell.
“Egypt can’t take part in the operation for two reasons: the fear that Qadhafi would target its citizens living in the troubled country, and also because Egypt’s military is concerned with administrating the internal affairs of the nation,” argues Abdel Salam.
On Tuesday, Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the Libya ambassador in Cairo to express disapproval of attacks on Egyptian citizens in Libya.
But for Abdel Salam, there are other reasons for Egypt's reluctance to intervene in Libya, such as not having a concrete vision of how to administer its foreign policy.
“Under the former regime, Egypt had a stance of not intervening in other countries' affairs. The post-Mubarak era hasn’t achieved a vision on how to manage its regional relations,” he says.
This month, Foreign Minister Nabil al-Araby said during a press conference with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Egypt supports any people who demand more freedoms.
Later, after a meeting with the Bahraini ambassador to Cairo, al-Araby said that Egypt supports the Bahraini government.
Asked whether the fall of Qadhafi would benefit Egypt, Abdel Salam said: “I think that the Egyptian foreign policy towards Libya will be adopting a pragmatic stance concerning the stability of its border and its citizens, regardless of the issue of Qadhafi being in power or not.”
