Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due in Cairo on Monday for an official visit at a very sensitive time for Egypt’s de facto rulers and when both countries’ relations with Israel are making headlines.
Erdogan recently downgraded relations with Israel, angered over its refusal to apologize for the raid on a flotilla to Gaza last year that resulted in the death of nine Turks. The anger has been exacerbated by the UN’s Palmer report, which acknowledged Israel's use of excessive force but stated that its naval blockade of the strip was legal. Erdogan has expelled the Israeli ambassador and suspended military agreements.
In Egypt, meanwhile, thousands protested outside the Israeli embassy on 9 September, tearing down a wall that had been hastily constructed to block access to it. Some protesters scaled the building that holds the embassy to remove the Israeli flag. Later, others managed to storm part of the embassy premises and documents seized were thrown onto the street.
Protesters wanted the ambassador expelled, incensed by the killing of six Egyptian security personnel on 18 August by Israeli gunfire after attacks on the Southern Israeli town of Eilat. He left the country that night.
Erdogan’s visit comes at a contentious time in the relations between the triumvirate, and this is made all the more pointed by his reported intention to head to the Gaza Strip through the Rafah border crossing from Egypt. Hamas Prime Minister in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh has already said that preparations are underway to receive him, but his visit to Gaza is far from confirmed.
Erdogan is scheduled to meet the head of Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Hussein Tantawi, as well as Prime Minister Essam Sharaf and other Egyptian officials. Ahead of the visit there is talk of planned cooperation in economic and military matters within the framework of a far-reaching strategic cooperation agreement.
Abdel-Alim Mohamed, Israeli affairs expert at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, agrees that the timing is significant due to Turkish focus on the region expanding and the standoff between Turkey and Israel.
“The Turkish position vis-a-vis Israel is very popular with Egyptians,” he said, “as it conveys a dignified stance that resonates with – and inspires – segments of the Egyptian population.”
Erdogan is also supposed to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Cairo, as well as EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, in preparation for Palestine’s statehood bid at the UN.
Despite this, it is Erdogan's wish to visit Gaza that is the main talking point for an Israel, which considers the idea a “diplomatic mistake” according to an Israeli official quoted in the Jerusalem Post.
But the subject of Gaza widens the gap between Egypt and Turkey, according to Ibrahim Yousri, former diplomat and head of the campaign to stop Egyptian gas exports to Israel.
“The fact is there is a big gap between Erdogan’s position towards Israel and Egypt’s, which is participatory in the siege of Gaza,” he said. “Egypt had a muted response after its troops were killed on the border and for that reason I don’t feel Erdogan’s visit will be anything more than an embarrassment for Egypt’s rulers.”
On a different note, Gihad Ouda, professor of International Relations at Helwan University, believes that now is not the time for Egypt to be making gestures as forceful as Turkey's, as the two countries’ circumstances are markedly different.
“We are in a sensitive strategic position at the moment,” he said. “Our relations with our traditional allies in the region are poor at the moment, and so Egypt should not be drawn too much into Turkish designs. There must be caution, not recklessness.”
And where Egypt stands in relation to Turkish foreign policy might be highlighted by whether Erdogan makes the trip to Gaza or not. Yousri said that his presence in Egypt and Gaza will be “useful” and welcomed in both countries with open arms.
Mohamed said, “Egypt is a sovereign country and this means that it can take diplomatic stances that reinforce its policy and the wishes of its people. Though Israel might think so it doesn’t constitute an act of aggression or hostility, nor does it mean that military action is imminent in any way.”
Erdogan has been prime minister since 2003, and his Justice and Development Party took power in 2002. An Islamic party, it has ruled secular Turkey ever since and made gains in the three elections it has contested.
With parallels being drawn to post-revolutionary Egypt , talk has emerged of the country following the Turkish model, with a strong army protecting the secular values of the republic's founder Kamal Ataturk but not interfering in politics unless those ideals are under threat.
But Ouda dismissed the possibility of Egypt following the Turkish route due to the latter's secular nature, a concept that isn’t so welcome in Egypt. He maintained that even through the ruling party is Islamic, Turkey itself has not strayed from secularism – but in Egypt there are people calling for an Islamic state.
The other reason he gave is that the “Egyptian military is different from the Turkish one, both on a structural level and in its relationship with the citizens of the country. The Egyptian military is more diffused and more populist, while the Turkish one is more hierarchical. The Egyptian military as it exists today was initially created by Gamal Abdel-Nasser in his image and that’s different from a military sworn to protect the ideals of Ataturk. There is a qualitative difference.”
