Economic recovery cannot act alone as a safeguard towards political stability, a Middle East expert has said, as Egypt puts the attraction of foreign investments and reforms to expenditure among its top priority for stability.
“Economic recovery has become a highly politicized topic in Egypt, with both the regime’s supporters and its critics arguing that the country’s economic health will determine its political future,” wrote Amr Adly, at Carnegie Middle East Center.
“These views, however, give too much weight to economic matters, while ignoring other important social, political and structural factors that will help determine the regime’s ability to consolidate its rule and maintain stability,” according to Adly.
Adly believes that despite the positive feedback and expectations given by international monetary institutions on the Egyptian economy, the current government is still adopting the Mubarak-era economic model.
“The new regime’s policy changes have been targeted exclusively toward big business and foreign—namely Gulf Arab—investors. Meanwhile, subsidies for the general population have been slashed, without offsetting social policies to mitigate the higher prices that ordinary Egyptians now face,” he argued, adding that the current regime is unwilling to adopt a taxation system that ensures a fair redistribution of income and enhance services.
Adly said that impressive economic performance is no guarantee for political stability, citing economic growth under Mubarak which failed to benefit the “broad base of the population”, which, he explained, led to Mubarak’s eventual ouster.
