Dubai — Gripped by fears of contagion and desperate to maintain the fragile status quo in the region, Arab regimes are choosing to remain silent as deaths tolls mount in a Syrian crackdown on protesters.
Analysts say Arab leaders, wary of the uprisings which toppled the veteran rulers of Tunisia and Egypt, are adopting a "better the devil you know" attitude and hope President Bashar al-Assad's regime will survive Syria's upheavals.
Human rights groups say close on 400 protesters have been killed in clashes with Syrian security forces, who have frequently resorted to gunfire, since the demonstrations began mid-March.
The lethal crushing of dissent by Assad's regime has sparked alarm in the international community but reaction across the Arab World has been muted.
Maha Azzam, associate fellow at the British think-tank, Chatham House, said Arab leaders have held back direct condemnation of the Syrian regime out of fear they could be next.
"The silence of Arab leaders on what is happening in Syria is going to create greater antagonism from their own populations towards these governments," warned Azzam.
She noted neighboring countries were more comfortable with a known Assad than an unknown successor.
"They (Arab neighbors) don't want any radical change that would make Syria a democratic society and that (democracy) itself would obviously be a greater threat to them than any policies of the Baathist regime."
A professor at the American university in Paris, Ziad Majed, agrees.
"Most Arab regimes prefer the status quo in the region," Majed said.
Protests swept through Tunisia and Egypt toppling autocratic leaders and what began as peaceful protests in Libya escalated into civil war when strongman Muammer Qadhafi's troops opened fire.
Protesters have now seized several eastern towns amid continuing heavy bloodshed.
Not all protests in the region have led to regime change. Gulf Arab troops intervened to crush a month-long Shia-led uprising in Bahrain. In Yemen, protests have entered their third month.
Protests have also taken place in several other Arab countries — Algeria, Jordan, Oman and Morocco.
"Despite the ups and downs, Gulf governments prefer to deal with regimes they know," Majed said.
Syria is seen as capable of creating an impact outside its geographical region with its strong ties with Iran and support for the Lebanese Shia militant group Hizbullah.
"Arab countries and the world think twice before announcing their positions" on Syria, said Ibrahim Sharqieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Centre. "There is a love-hate relationship with the Syrian regime."
Analysts agree the Syrian struggle will be long and bloody, but they also believe mounting street pressures has the potential to push Assad out.
Assad had issued decrees Thursday scrapping decades-old emergency rule, abolishing the state security court and allowing citizens to hold peaceful demonstrations.
Unimpressed, protesters took to the streets on Friday in demonstrations that left more than 80 people reportedly killed in one of the bloodiest days of the month-long uprising.
Friday's bloodbath prompted US President Barak Obama to dismiss Assad's move and accuse him of seeking Tehran's aid "in repressing Syria's citizens through the same brutal tactics that have been used by his Iranian allies."
According to Majed, there is little hope.
"The structure of the (Syrian) regime is very inflexible, very rigid, that any reform would lead to its collapse," the Lebanese professor said. "Changing it will take lots of time and unfortunately lots of blood."
Analyst Azzam agrees the road ahead will be long and bloody.
"The Syrian regime will continue to use violence but the protesters will keep coming back until the fall of the al-Assad regime," she says.
"There will be a long-term struggle and ultimately the existing regime will be unlikely to succeed," she says.
"Even if there is a lull in the protests because of suppression, the protests will re-emerge," the Egyptian analyst says.
Sharqieh for his part insists that change will only be inevitable if "large numbers of protesters take to the streets of the capital Damascus specifically" or if rifts begin to emerge within the Baath party or within the Syrian leadership.
