Baghdad–Iraq holds a parliamentary election on March 7 that could set it on a path to peace and prosperity or bring back the bloody sectarian chaos of the years that followed the US invasion of 2003.
US and UN officials hope the general election will bring Iraq’s once dominant Sunni Muslims back into the political process, dampening the resentment at the rise to power of majority Shias that still fuels a stubborn insurgency.
The next government will be in power when the last US soldier withdraws by the end of 2011, and will reap the rewards of multi-billion-dollar oil deals with foreign firms in Iraq, which has the world’s third biggest reserves.
The conduct of the election will also determine the kind of democracy that Iraq might become once US oversight bows out, and how democracy in Iraq might affect the fate of more autocratic nations in the Middle East region.
"I will go to vote even if I have to crawl because I do not want the past to be repeated," said Abdul Amir Ali, a Shia Muslim who owns a clothes store in Baghdad, adding: "The election is so important for Iraq and, God willing, things will get better and better."
Yet the campaign for Iraq’s first sovereign vote since the invasion has deepened sectarian divides, rather than healed them, after candidates, including prominent Sunnis, were banned for supposed links to Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath party.
The Sunni dictator’s oppression fell most heavily on Iraq’s Shias and ethnic Kurds.
While overall violence has fallen, the election is unfolding against a backdrop of a rise in attacks by suicide bombers who revealed the shortcomings of security forces with devastating assaults on Baghdad starting in August, and bomb strikes against Shia pilgrims.
Shias, united in the last election, are now divided, with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki running alone after deciding he could win without the help of his former allies.
That is a step forward from purely sectarian politics, but it may also lead to turmoil after the vote if no one is strong enough to form a government. A political vacuum in 2006 allowed sectarian warfare to grip the nation.
Known to the ancient world as Mesopotamia, modern Iraq was carved from the ruins of the Ottoman empire in 1920 by Britain under a League of Nations mandate and became independent as a kingdom in 1932. Iraq became a republic in 1958, but was in effect run by military rulers until 2003.
Widespread despair at the corruption and incompetence that has marked government in the last four years may deter many of the 18.9 million eligible voters from casting ballots, while fear of attacks will keep others at home.
Most Iraqis will only have a few hours of electricity on election day. Some neighborhoods, turned into a maze of canyons by the towering blastwalls set up to protect Sunni from Shia, and vice versa, will not have seen a garbage truck for weeks.
"There are no jobs, just bombings," said Hassan Yousif Aamash, 40, a Sunni. "I will not take part in the election. What did the people we voted for last time do for us? Nothing."
Despite the fall in violence, Iraq remains a shambles.
At least 18 percent of the population is unemployed and twice that are underemployed. The public sector provides two-thirds of all full-time jobs, according to UN estimates.
The outgoing government sealed 10 deals with global oil firms that could make crude oil output rival top producer Saudi Arabia’s and give Iraq the billions it needs to rebuild after decades of war, sanctions and economic decline.
Yet outside the oil industry, foreign investment has been confined to Shia tourism in the holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala, and the relatively stable Kurdish region in the north.
Here and there, workers renovate crumbling villas or the bomb-shattered facades of public buildings. New cars ply crowded streets, but there are few signs of burgeoning economic growth.
The UN’s special representative to Iraq, Ad Melkert, cautioned against "persistent scepticism and impatience" about Iraq, saying that it is making progress.
Hazem al-Nuaimi, a political analyst in Baghdad, said the March 7 election should be viewed as a milestone in Iraq’s political transition, not a final destination.
"Definitely this election will not establish a new fully stable political system but it will sow the seeds to change it."
Some Iraqis harbor hope, no matter the outcome of the vote.
"This election is the start so the country can stand on its own feet," said female college student Maab Mohammed, a Sunni.
