Egyptian claims of uncovering an Israeli spy ring have raised conflicting reactions from Egyptian and American political analysts.
Egypt on Monday referred three suspects, including two Israelis and one Egyptian, for immediate trial before the Supreme State Security Court over accusations of espionage. The spy ring was charged with recruiting agents in Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon to deliver information to the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. Egypt claims the defendants also kidnapped foreign nationals in order to destabilize security in Sinai and sought to infiltrate Egyptian telecommunication sectors.
David Makovsky, an expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Jerusalem Post executive director, labeled as“utterly ridiculous” on Wednesday allegations that Israel sought to destabilize Egypt. In an email to Al-Masry Al-Youm, Makovsky pointed to close cooperation between Israel and Egypt, including “thwarting arms to Hamas from the Sinai to Gaza” and sharing a “regional policy consensus” surrounding Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
Jeffrey White, former senior defense analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency, the US government's primary military intelligence organization, echoed Makovsky's claims, contending that “Israel has a strong interest in the stability of Egypt.”
“An unstable Egypt would be a major security risk for Israel from virtually every conceivable aspect,” including conventional military threats and terrorism, according to White. “We tend to forget that prior to the peace agreement Egypt was the main threat to Israel.”
Israeli officials in Egypt denied commenting on the case, according to the Associated Press.
David Pollock, an expert of Arab politics at the Washington Institute, believes Egyptian officials may have concocted the allegations in retaliation for recent failures to restart Palestinian peace negotiations or may have desired to stir up anger against Israel to deflect attention from the country’s internal problems.
The recent spy ring developments revisit the case of Ashraf Marwan, late President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s son-in-law, who analysts thought to be a double agent. A recent book entitled "The Angel: Ashraf Marwan, the Mossad and the Surprise of the Yom Kippur War," released in 2010 and written in Hebrew by Uri Bar Yosef, a political scientist at the University of Haifa, claims Marawan was not a double agent and was, in fact, only spying for Israel.
“Bar Yosef has no doubt that Egyptian intelligence murdered Marwan after Zeira revealed his identity," reads a book review by Yossi Melman published by the Israeli Haaratez on 17 December. "I also reached this conclusion in articles I wrote.”
The book suggests that Egyptian authorities reacted with anger to the purported betrayal of a member of Egypt's highest policy circles.
But in disagreement with Washington analysts, Emad Gad, an expert at Egypt's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, believes the Israeli spy ring allegations are truthful and valid.
“Despite Israel’s peace treaty with Egypt, Egypt remains Israel’s primary threat in the region,” said Gad.
Though it may be true that Israel and Egypt share certain objectives such as confronting Hamas and Iran, he added, occasional cooperation and shared goals between the countries do not detract from the fact that each nation views the other as its primary obstacle to regional dominance.
A recent US diplomatic cable, released by the online whistleblower WikiLeaks, bolsters Gad’s view that Israel continues to perceive Egypt as a long-term strategic threat. “Israel enjoys peace with Egypt…but not with its people,” reads the leak, dated November 2009 and published by the Jerusalem Post.
In light of this popular animosity, Israel continues raising concerns over the US sale of arms to its Arab allies, according to the cable. Israelis, the cable goes on, believe in the possibility of a “worst case scenario” whereby “moderate Arab nations such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia fall victim to regime change and resume hostilities against Israel."
“Some press reports sound contradictory or exaggerated,” according to Pollock. Attempted espionage, including cell phone and telecom network infiltration, is “probably undertaken by many countries inside and outside the region.” Pollock says espionage is a common practice in the international community.
Israel has a long history of spying on friends and enemies alike. Since the signing of the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt in 1979, an agreement which exchanged the territory of Sinai for Egyptian recognition of Israel, Egyptian officials have uncovered dozens of Israeli attempts to infiltrate economic, science, technology, and military sectors in Egypt.
Even Israel’s strongest ally, the United States, has proved susceptible to Israeli espionage. In 1987, US civilian intelligence analyst Jonathan Pollard received a sentence of life in prison after he was convicted of transferring classified documents to Israel. And in December 2001, Fox News ran a series on alleged Israeli spying on US telecommunication systems. The network later withdrew the series from the air without explanation.
Neither Gad nor the Washington-based experts believe the allegations portend a souring of relations between Israel and Egypt. “There are too many important interests in common,” Pollock notes.
The Egyptian independent daily Al-Dostour on Tuesday quoted an Israeli spokesman as saying “the case will not affect relations between the two countries.”
