As we finally approach the end of two of the most exciting days in the Egypt's modern history, it is now time to start looking at the numbers of the preliminary results of the presidential race.
The biggest winners in January's parliamentary elections have become the biggest losers in the presidential elections. The Muslim Brotherhood may seem to be on course to win the president's seat, but a run-off against a feloul (old regime candidate), Ahmed Shafiq, has actually brought about their only chance to do so in light of a significant decline in their popularity, manifested by a drop in their score from more than 40 percent in January to less than 25 percent in May. Last night we saw how the Brotherhood lost some of its strongholds — such as Alexandria, Sharqiya and Daqahlia — as people clearly took their disappointment in Parliament's performance to the ballot box. When taking into account the lower participation rate in the presidential elections, we realize that the drop might be worse than initially thought.
Perhaps as a direct result of the turn against the Brotherhood, the biggest winner today is Hamdeen Sabbahi. The veteran socialist managed to lead a campaign, which proved that paying allegiance to religion is not a requirement for political success in Egypt. By missing out on what would have been a thrilling run-off by a small margin, Sabbahi convinced enough people that there exists a capable alternative to Islamist candidates that is neither elitist nor related to the former regime. Should he be able to invest his achievement well, the future holds all sorts of opportunities for him and those who voted for him.
The defeat of Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh reflected another failure of an ill-designed strategy to combine the support of groups that hardly have anything in common when it comes to politics. The outcome was that the Salafis promised to support Abouel Fotouh, but did not find enough reasons to turn that into real mobilization effort on the ground. At the same time, the middle-class and youthful crowds seeking an alternative to the Brotherhood were not inspired by his western-style campaign because they saw among his supporters the likes of Salafi leader Abdel Moniem al-Shahat and Omar Abdel-Rahman, the "Blind Sheikh" imprisoned in the US. Instead, many seem to have turned to Sabbahi.
Finally, former Prime Minister Shafiq's success in reaching the run-offs reflects a crisis of legitimacy suffered by the revolution. Shafiq's well-funded and extremely pragmatic campaign targeted the so-called silent majority by playing the security and stability card, which was unjustifiably ignored by candidates who claimed relation to the revolution, as if speaking about security was by definition anti-revolutionary.
However, the biggest winners were by all means, us, Egyptians, who lived for the first time ever a unique experience of free, fair and competitive presidential elections that came to them with all the essential accessories such as televised debates and a long entertaining night of results tracking that certainly beat the most exciting football game Egyptians can remember. This enjoyable experience is a guarantee that what we have witnessed over the past few weeks and will continue to live until the inauguration of the new president will not be a once in a lifetime experience.
Moustafa Khalil is a PhD candidate at the University of Manchester, UK
