With less than six months before Egyptians choose their first post-Hosni Mubarak president, a new presidential hopeful with a military background has emerged, reigniting the debate over whether Egypt’s incumbent rulers seek to hand the presidency over to a fellow officer.
Last week, Hossam Khairallah, former assistant chairman of Egypt’s General Intelligence Services, made headlines after announcing in a five-star hotel that he will run for president. The announcement drew a lot of media attention because of the potential candidate’s background.
In only few days, Khairallah appeared on the most popular news talk shows and spoke to the most widely circulated dailies. In most interviews, he had to respond to the pressing question of whether or not he is backed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. His answer was not affirmative in any of the media exchanges. Yet he contended that Egypt needs a president with a military background at this critical juncture.
Khairallah’s resume proves that he was deeply entrenched in the circles of the armed forces and the intelligence, the two state institutions that the revolution has not yet touched. They have been running the transitional period together for the past 11 months.
Khairallah graduated from the military academy in 1964. He served in the military until he assumed the leadership of the parachute battalion in the mid-1970s. In 1977, he joined the intelligence services and made his way up through its ranks until he was appointed assistant chairman of the GIS in 2000, working under Omar Suleiman. Five years later, he retired.
“It is not clear whether he is supported by the military establishment,” said Shahir George, leader of the Egypt Freedom Party, which is pending official approval. In the meantime, George suspected that the media attention Khairallah has received so far might be dictated by the military establishment to groom him for the presidential bid.
“Earlier, there were several [potential presidential] candidates with a military background but they did not get the same media attention,” said George. “The way he is emerging and the timing require that we monitor [him]. He might be one of the options available to the military establishment.”
According to the latest transitional road map announced by the SCAF, the presidential race should be held by the end of June. Potential candidates are still waiting for the issuance of the presidential election law so they can file official applications.
Since Mubarak stepped down in February 2011, several political leaders and public figures announced their willingness to run for the presidency. Khairallah is the fourth former military officer to engage in the race. Earlier, Magdy Hatata, former chief of staff of the Egyptian armed forces, Mohamed Ali Belal, assistant chief of staff of the armed forces, and Ahmed Shafiq, a former air force chief of staff and the last Mubarak-appointed prime minister, announced their bids for the presidency. Like Khairallah, none of the three had claimed to be SCAF’s official candidate. Last month, Hatata announced that he would not pursue his campaign, arguing that the latest political developments raise questions about military officers’ ability to handle national crises.
On several occasions, SCAF leaders affirmed that they had no intention to field a military candidate and that they are determined to hand power to civilians. Yet their resilient attempts to ensure that the new political order will not let civilians interfere with the armed forces’ many economic and political privileges have raised fears that they might eventually groom a general for the presidency and reproduce the same post-1952 pattern, which only allowed military leaders to preside over the republic.
For political scientist Mostafa Kamel al-Sayyed, the real question is not whether the SCAF wants to field a candidate from the barracks but how it can ensure the victory of a favored candidate without resorting to vote rigging.
“If the presidential elections are fair, any military-backed candidate cannot automatically win, especially because the popularity of the armed forces is not in its best situation,” said Sayyed.
Despite irregularities, the ongoing parliamentary poll is hailed by most monitors as mostly fair and free. Although the military is given the credit for securing the poll so far, it is blamed for the killing of dozens of protesters during street battles that erupted over the last three months.
“[A military-backed candidate] needs to win the support of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis at the beginning,” Sayyed said.
The latest parliamentary results have already proved that the Muslim Brotherhood and ultraconservative Salafis are the most popular political factions and will soon rise as the key civilian players in the post-Mubarak order. According to preliminary indicators, the two groups have already secured almost two-thirds of the newly elected People’s Assembly.
Like George, Sayyed expressed mixed feelings over Khairallah’s campaign.
“It is not easy to know whether the campaign is a personal initiative or a plan designed by the armed forces,” he said. “We will find out whether the military is behind him after we see how big his campaign is and how large his resources are.”
If Khairallah’s campaign has an exceptional amount of funding, this might be evidence that the military is backing him, Sayyed said.
Nasserist columnist Abdallah al-Sennawy said Khairallah’s bid does not need that much speculation. He ruled out unequivocally that the SCAF might have triggered this campaign.
“I am sure it is just a personal initiative from Khairallah. He is not the military establishment’s candidate,” Sennawy said confidently.
The military would not bet on such a low-profile former officer who remains unknown to the larger public and lacks any social or political support base, Sennawy said.
“If the military is to nominate any one, it will be [Field Marshal Hussein] Tantawi,” the head of the SCAF, Sennawy said, explaining that SCAF members would respect his seniority.
Yet the unpopularity of Mubarak’s former defense minister would close off the avenue for this option. In this case, the generals would try to reach an agreement on the most suitable civilian candidate for both of them, Sennawy added.
Amr Moussa, a former foreign minister under Mubarak, “is left as the most likely candidate on whom an agreement can be reached,” said Sennawy. In case the Muslim Brotherhood refuses to back Moussa, new civilian names might be suggested, Sennawy concluded.
