Before the Iran war, US President Donald Trump’s Gulf Arab allies lobbied hard against strikes, fearing the attacks Tehran is now unleashing on them. As the war drags on, they fear a quick exit could leave them worse off than before it began.
Over the past week, as momentum toward negotiations to end the war has grown, Gulf Arab officials have stated openly that Iran’s military capabilities, used to punish them for the US and Israel’s actions, cannot remain intact in any future regional order. While the perceived nuclear threat still looms, they see Iran’s missiles as a more urgent risk.
Saudi Arabia wants Tehran’s cruise and ballistic missile capabilities degraded “as much as possible,” before the war ends, a regional official familiar with the Saudi position told CNN, while the United Arab Emirates believes it would be “difficult” for the region to continue to live with an Iranian missile and drone program, according to same official..
The message from the Iran war “has become very clear,” Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE president, said last week.
“Our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire, but rather turns toward solutions that ensure lasting security” in the Gulf, he said, including addressing Iran’s “nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the bullying of the straits.”
“It is inconceivable that this aggression should turn into a permanent state of threat,” he added in a post on X Sunday.
US officials say they are seeking similar objectives.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this month the goal is to “destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure.”
Rewriting Regional Security
Iranian officials have said that the majority of their firepower has been used against neighboring Arab states, which has baffled regional leaders who insist they played no role in the war and actively lobbied against it. As the war progressed, Tehran accused several Gulf Arab states of allowing the US to use their territories to launch attacks onto the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s demands have also changed throughout the war, with Iranian officials saying they demand a new status quo in the region which includes formalizing Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations and a shift in the decades-old alliances between Gulf Arab states and the US. It has also threatened to expand its attacks against its Arab neighbors.
The New York Times on Tuesday cited American officials saying Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been pushing Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that it presents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East.
The public messaging from Saudi Arabia however remains focused on de-escalation.
A senior Saudi official told CNN that Riyadh “remains supportive” of a peaceful resolution to this conflict, as it has before the war began.
“Our primary concern today is to defend ourselves from the daily attacks on our people and our civilian infrastructure,” the official said. “We remain in close contact with the Trump administration, and our commitment remains unchanged.”
Qatar, whose LNG production has come to a complete halt because of Iran’s attacks, has also insisted that any solution to the war must take into consideration the interests of the Arab neighbors that Iran has struck.
“There has to be a role from our countries in rewriting the regional security system in line with our strategic interests,” Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari told a briefing Tuesday.
Public Enemy Number One
US-Israeli attacks on Iran have killed more than 1,750 people and injured more than 20,000 since they started four weeks ago, according to an Iranian official.
Iran has responded by launching thousands of projectiles at cities across neighboring Arab states, shattering the stability the region had long. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively blocked shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz, depriving Iran’s neighbors of billions of dollars in revenue from energy exports.
Iranian attacks have led to the deaths of more than 25 people and injured more than 200 across the Gulf, according to figures released by the respective governments. The UAE has suffered the heaviest casualties in the Gulf region.
Trump has been adamant that the US and Israel have already won the war. This week, he indicated that Washington could soon begin negotiations with Tehran, possibly in Pakistan, even as the US prepares to deploy additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
Over the past few years, Gulf Arab states had moved to significantly improve relations with Iran, but experts say the ferocity of Tehran’s attacks against them has given new life to the notion that the Islamic Republic remains their most formidable threat. An Iranian regime left intact after this war, with control of the Strait of Hormuz and an emboldened IRGC capable of striking at will energy facilities, is their worst nightmare.
“Saudi and the rest of the Gulf countries have a very specific interest in whatever agreement might be reached between the US and Iran,” Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, told CNN. “There has to be a structured guarantee that this will not happen again.”
Gulf Arab countries are now facing the “ugly” side Iran that is run by the IRGC, said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist from the UAE.
Today, Iran is “public enemy number one” to Gulf Arab states, Abdulla said. “It’s not a terrorist state, but it is run by a terrorist organization.”
“This is an ugly Iran that we are confronted with, and it is the duty of everybody, not just America to… not surrender and do not let this (Iran) go away without being punished.”
CNN’s Sarah Sirgany contributed to this report.
