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The Age of Uncertainty

Having lunch in Puglia every February at the home of my dear friend Giuseppe Rossi had been a tradition for the past five years.

​Rossi is a very successful entrepreneur who bet early on Apple and Google after making a lot of money on Netscape’s IPO way back in 1995, when Netscape’s share price at US$28 shot to $75 on the first day of trading.

Rossi, at the age of 55, was an athletic nutrition freak, semi-retired, yet highly active in global philanthropy, with a foundation supporting young Italian professionals to grow their careers by giving them scholarships to attend special courses at MIT, Harvard, Yale, Oxford, and Cambridge.

​Rossi lived most of his life between New York, London, and Rome. He moved to Puglia with his wife Maria, four German Shepherds, and his butler Sebastian.

Puglia, a sun-drenched region in Italy’s heel, is known for 800 plus km of coastline and over 60 million olive trees. It is famous for its great cuisine, including Orecchiette (little ears) pasta, taralli biscuits, plus local wines like Negroamaro.

​Every year, Rossi convenes a special two-day event at the hotel Borgo Egnazia. The hotel is located in Savelletri di Fasano, where the hills of the Itria Valley gently fall away to the Adriatic Sea. The hotel itself is a resort surrounded by large Arab-style gardens and dry stone walls.

​My lunch with Rossi was always held the day before the launch of his annual forum: this year it was titled “Surviving the Age of Unpredictability.”

He usually hosted six to ten guests in his villa, while we resided at the Borgo Egnazia.

What was different this year was that Borgo Egnazia had added a modern conference facility in their beautiful gardens where, in June 2024, it was the venue of the 50th G7 Summit hosted by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Back at Rossi’s villa, the other guests joining us for the pre-forum lunch were:

  • Andrew Shepard, a British industrialist
  • Farida Fraeij, a Moroccan, a very successful entrepreneur who had created and sold four global companies in the sectors of cosmetics, surgical robotics, track transportation and pharma, and who was presently researching space
  • Robert Stevens, an American, the founder and Chair of Stevens Capital with over $100 billion under management and offices across the globe
  • Alison Mason, born in Brazil to a diplomatic family, who had lived in Russia, Germany and France, and was now residing in Bern, Switzerland. Mason is the founder and Chair of a major security company that operates in over 35 countries under different names
  • And lastly, Ismail Nakmos, an Emirati with a mixed background from the UAE and Azerbaijan, who was a global investor in India, China, the EU, and the US in various sectors, but mainly AI.

As we were guided to the fabulous 12-foot ceiling dining room overlooking the Adriatic – plus a carefully designed glass dome that always reminded me of the Vatican – I was chatting with Farida about Morocco, a country I enjoy tremendously for relaxation, great food, and a serene atmosphere.

I always remember Morocco fondly as there I had sponsored in 1994, with the guidance of André Azoulay, the King’s advisor, the first public meeting of both Arab and Israeli leaders in a conference in Casablanca, chaired and attended by the former King Hassan II.

As we were sitting at the dining table in came Dominic Tan, a well-known Singaporean media leader, author, and global journalist. We spent the first course exchanging pleasantries and the latest news of ourselves, our travels, families, and present status.

As the second course was being served, Giuseppe put a spoon to the wine glass, getting the attention of the entire table, upon which a serious quiet descended.

​Giuseppe, after welcoming us each individually, asked, “How do you see the state of the world? Is it on a positive or negative path?”

Andrew, with a very serious, glum face, laid down a very negative outlook. He described several conflicts ongoing in the world and the resulting state of the British economy.

“It’s struggling, due to poor leadership,” he stated, also noting that the same leadership in Britain was incentivizing major global entrepreneurs and investors to move to other countries.

​Robert, equally glum, referred to what US policies have been doing to global markets: the uncertainty, the unpredictability.

“Except to those who know, who are making tons of money, who can do so as they have advanced knowledge of what is coming up the road.

Giuseppe asked Robert about the Iran war: “Was the US ever under the threat of Iran?”

​Robert’s eyebrows went up; he cracked half a smile and said, “No.” He added that a lot of money was being made in this war, plus there was a lot of destruction, and more show and made-up conclusions than reality.

As the servers were removing the main course dishes and serving an appealing chocolate cake with red strawberries, Farida mentioned the danger of listening to statements such as “Iran accepted the ceasefire under overwhelming pressure”, as they are false and that such false statements lead to the wrong conclusions.

“The US, as a superpower,” she said, “must have a much better appreciation of the concepts of stability and security to allow for global economic growth and world peace.”

Farida added that they were doing very well in Morocco, but the time we live in today is one full of uncertainty.

Alison interjected, as she pointed her spoon at the chocolate dessert and gave Giuseppe a thumbs up: “Can you imagine if all the money spent on this Iran war, which Iran did not initiate, was spent on medical research for cancer, MS, arthritis, homes for the homeless, and food for the hungry?”

Alison added that as we had this delicious dinner, approximately 673 million people in the world were undernourished – roughly eight percent of the global population.

​Giuseppe saw Ismail raise his hand and gave him the floor. Ismail, in a quiet, measured voice, wanted to make a comment that no one had addressed. He said, “I want to only mention facts.” and was silent for six or seven seconds.

Then he outlined the fact that no one had mentioned Israel’s continued role as a destructive player in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, both the West Bank and Gaza, and initiating the war on Iran.

“​Israel,” Nakmos added, “can end all the catastrophes in the Middle East if it gives the Palestinians a state, as per the resolution of 1948. A Palestinian state, would bring an end to all conflicts, militant groups, and inhumane acts that are ongoing now.”

​Dominic interjected, saying, “But Israel needs to defend itself.”

Nakmos responded: “Against what? October 7?” He explained slowly that the conflict was born because Gaza was an open prison for decades, and Palestinians were treated as third-degree citizens, like animals instead of people.

“Please listen to Ehud Olmert,” Nakmos added. “That would bring peace to the region and security for Israel, with it integrating with 350 million Arabs, and would give the Palestinians the home and dignity they deserve, so that no more Palestinians are born in Israeli occupation and die under Israeli occupation.​”

Giuseppe interjected, looked at me, and said, “Shafik, you are silent?” I shifted in my seat and said, “The Summit at the Borgo Egnazia, in Apulia, on June 13th, 2024, had as its main focus that the G7 leaders confirm their strong determination to uphold the international order based on the rule of law.”

“​​But as we sit here today in 2026, we must admit there is NO international order based on any law.”

I added that we must face this fact if we plan to leave a better world for the next generations. Otherwise, with the advent of AGI, we ensure that this uncertainty and lack of international order based on the rule of law is guaranteed chaos for the next-generation, and that power rules.

Some guests around the table nodded; others were busy consulting their phones.

Giuseppe said, “And with this note, let’s move towards the after-dinner terrace for coffee, tea, and liqueur.”

I thanked Giuseppe and asked to be excused as I was tired and wanted some order in my travel to get some hours of sleep before the conference begins tomorrow.

With that, I bid everyone goodnight, hoping to be re-energized to face a skeptic audience tomorrow to warn of the consequences of doing nothing and that it is time to take a firm stand to agree on an international order based on the rule of law before it becomes a free for all.

 

About the author

M. Shafik Gabr is a renowned leader in international business, innovation, investment and one of the world’s premier collectors of Orientalist art, and an accomplished philanthropist.

During his career, Gabr established over 25 companies plus three investment holding companies including ARTOC Group for Investment and Development which, established in 1971, is a multi-disciplined investment holding company with businesses in infrastructure, automotive, engineering, construction and real estate, over the past three years focusing on investment in technology and artificial intelligence.

Gabr is the Chairman and a founding member of Egypt’s International Economic Forum, a member of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum, a Board Member of Stanhope Capital, an International Chairman of the Sadat Congressional Gold Medal Committee, and a Member of the Parliamentary Intelligence Security Forum.

Gabr is a Member of the Metropolitan Museum’s International Council and serves on the Advisory Board of the Center for Financial Stability, the Advisory Board of The Middle East Institute, and the Global Advisory Council of the Mayo Clinic.

Through the Shafik Gabr Social Development Foundation, Gabr is helping to improve elementary-school education in Egypt, introducing students to arts and culture and promoting sports and physical fitness for youth. The Foundation has its first Medical and Social Development Center in Mokattam, Cairo, offering free medical and health services.

In 2012 Gabr established in the US the Shafik Gabr Foundation which supports educational and medical initiatives plus launched in November 2012 the ‘East-West: The Art of Dialogue initiative promoting exchanges between the US and Egypt with the purpose of cultural dialogue and bridge-building.

Gabr holds a BA in Economics and Management from the American University in Cairo and an MA in Economics from the University of London.

 

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